Assessing economic losses to buildings from tsunami using stochastic rupture sources: A case study of Pelabuhan Ratu, Indonesia
Abstract
Coastal communities worldwide face a growing threat from tsunamis as population density increases in highârisk coastal zones. Major events such as the 2004 Aceh tsunami (Mw 9.3), the 2018 Sulawesi tsunami (Mw 7.5), and the 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami caused extensive casualties and economic destruction, emphasizing the urgent need for effective risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Understanding potential economic impacts is crucial to support evidence-based policy and planning. This study aims to quantitatively assess economic losses to buildings in Pelabuhan Ratu, West Java, Indonesia, by applying stochastic tsunami rupture scenarios within a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) framework. The Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model was used to simulate tsunami inundation based on stochastic rupture scenarios with magnitudes ranging from Mw 8.5 to Mw 9.0, with 0.1 intervals. Building damage probabilities were estimated using tsunami fragility curves to determine damage states from slight to complete, and economic losses were calculated using replacement cost values. The simulation results indicate estimated building losses of USD 906.84K and USD 1.97M for tsunami return periods of 200 and 500 years, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of proactive mitigation measures, including strengthened building codes, land-use regulation, and improved early warning systems, to reduce future tsunami-related economic impacts in Pelabuhan Ratu
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