PENDEKATAN MODEL GRAVITASI UNTUK MENGESTIMASI PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA DI INDONESIA
Abstract
Tourism is one of the main drivers of Indonesia’s economy. It included the five biggest foreign earning contributors of the country’s income receipt in the past. From this perspective, this study tries to analyse the determinants influencing international tourism demand in Indonesia using the Gravity Model. In this study, to estimate tourism demand in the form of Tourist Arrival or Tourist Expenditure based on key economic factors as Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita both from Tourist Origin Country and Tourist Destination Country, Relatively living cost country, Real exchange rate and Distant (mile) between Tourist Origin Country and Tourist Destination Country. For the empirical analysis a panel dataset of the ten biggest mayor Tourist Origin Countries- Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Jepang, India, Korea Selatan, China, Amerika, Inggris and Taiwan- is used over the periode 2000-2018. With the panel data estimation shows that the majority of the determinants have statistically significant in the two specifications of tourism demand.
Abstrak
Pariwisata adalah salah satu faktor pendorong utama perekonomian Indonesia. Hal tersebut termasuk dalam lima penyumbang devisa terbesar. Dari perspektif itu, penelitian ini mencoba menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi permintaan pariwisata secara internasional di Indonesia dengan menggunakan Model Gravity. Dalam studi ini, untuk memperkirakan permintaan pariwisata dalam bentuk Kedatangan Turis atau Kepergian Turis berdasarkan faktor ekonomi utama dalam bentuk Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) per kapita baik dari Negara Asal Wisatawan dan Negara Tujuan Wisata, biaya hidup relatif, nilai tukar riil dan Jarak (mil) antara Negara Asal Wisatawan dan Negara Tujuan Wisata. Untuk analisis empiris, menggunakan data panel dari sepuluh negara terbesar yakni Negara Asal Turis - Australia, Malaysia, Singapura, Jepang, India, Korea Selatan, Cina, Amerika, Inggris, dan Taiwan selama periode 2000-2018. Dengan estimasi data panel menunjukkan bahwa semua faktor penentu secara statistik signifikan dalam dua persamaan permintaan pariwisata.
Kata Kunci : pariwisata, destinasi, PDB, model gravity, data panel
Keywords
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24815/jped.v6i2.17850
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