Faktor – Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Petani Padi dan Perkembangannya di Provinsi Aceh

Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu untuk mengetahui perkembangan nilai tukar petani padi, luas panen, harga pupuk urea bersubsdi, inflasi dan nilai tukar rupiah di Provinsi Aceh. Kemudian  untuk mengetahui pengaruh luas panen, harga pupuk urea bersubsdi, inflasi dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap Nilai Tukar Petani Padi di Provinsi Aceh. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa perkembangan nilai tukar petani padi memiliki tren menurun, perkembangan luas panen, harga pupuk urea bersubsidi dan nilai tukar rupiah memiliki tren meningkat sedangkan perkembangan inflasi memiliki tren yang berfluktuasi. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa nilai R² adalah sebesar 0.630 yang artinya bawha pengaruh variabel bebas (luas panen, harga pupuk urea bersubsidi, inflasi dan nilai tukar rupiah) terhadap nilai tukar petani padi sebesar 63 % sedangkan 37 % lagi dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain. Hasil regresi menunjukkan variabel luas panen berpengaruh positif dengan nilai koefisien sebesar 75.883. Sedangkan variabel harga pupuk urea berpengaruh negatif dengan nilai koefisien -37.260, inflasi berpengaruh negatif dengan nilai koefisien -0.528 dan nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh negatif dengan nilai koefisien -0.005. Secara serempak semua variable bebas berpengaruh nyata terhadap nilai tukar petani padi. Dan secara parsial variable luas lahan, harga pupuk urea bersubsidi dan nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh nyata, sedangkan variable inflasi tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap nilai tukar petani padi di Provinsi Aceh.

The purpose of this study is to determine the development of rice farmers' exchange rates, harvested area, subsidized urea fertilizer prices, inflation and the rupiah exchange rate in Aceh Province. Then to determine the effect of harvested area, the price of subsidized urea fertilizer, inflation and the rupiah exchange rate against the Farmers' Exchange Rates in Aceh Province. The results of this study indicate that the development of the exchange rate of rice farmers has a downward trend, the development of harvested area, the price of subsidized urea fertilizer and the rupiah exchange rate has an increasing trend while the development of inflation has a fluctuating trend. Regression results show that the R2 value is 0.641, which means that the influence of the independent variable (harvested area, subsidized urea fertilizer price, inflation and the rupiah exchange rate) to the exchange rate of rice farmers by 63% while another 37% is influenced by other variables. Regression results show that the harvest area variable has a positive effect with a coefficient value of 75.883. While the urea fertilizer price has a negative effect with a coefficient of -37.260, inflation has a negative effect with a coefficient of -0.528 and the rupiah exchange rate has a negative effect with a coefficient of -0.005. Simultaneously all independent variables have a significant effect on the exchange rate of rice farmers. And partially the land area variable, the price of subsidized urea fertilizer and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant effect, while the inflation variable partially does not significantly affect the exchange rate of rice farmers in Aceh Province.