Analysis of the Leading Sectors of the Mandailing Natal Region in 2017-2021 Based on Potential Advantages

: The course of economic development has led to various changes, especially in the structure of the economy. Changes in the economic structure are one of the characteristics. This study wants to show the potential of several sectors in Mandailing Natal Regency with Location Quotion analysis, Klassen Typology analysis and Shift share analysis. The results of the study show that there are 2 economic sectors in Mandailing Natal Regency which are the base (leading) sectors. From the results of the LQ analysis, it was obtained that Government Administration, Defense and Compulsory Social Security with an LQ value of 2.05 while the base sector with the lowest LQ score (1.95) was Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. From the results of the Klassen Typology analysis it was identified that there were 2 sectors belonging to the advanced and fast-growing sectors (Quadrant I), six sectors included in the growing sector category (Quadrant II), four sectors included in the advanced but depressed sector category (Quadrant III), and 5 sectors fall into the category of relatively underdeveloped sectors (Quadrant IV). Meanwhile, from the calculation results of the Shift Share analysis, it is known that information and communication have the greatest competitiveness.


INTRODUCTION
Regional development aims to improve the welfare of the community.Regional development is an integral part of national development and takes place in a sustainable manner.One of the most important areas is economic development (Erika, 2020).Economic growth is an important measure to determine the success of development in a region.A region is considered successful in carrying out development if the economic growth of the people in the region is quite high (Nasution, 2018).Economic growth is defined as an increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) regardless of whether the increase is greater or less than population growth and regardless of whether there are changes in the economic structure (G. Ierapetritis, 2019).
In the basic concept of macroeconomics, the indicators used in measuring economic growth are gross domestic product (GDP) for the national level and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) for provincial areas (Nora Lubis & Emma Pravitasari, 2021).The growth and increase in GRDP from year to year is an indicator of the success of regional development which can illustrate whether or not there is economic development.The greater the contribution made by each economic sector to GRDP, the region can carry out economic growth towards a better direction and which means that it will also improve the welfare and prosperity of the people (Soebagiyo & Sri Hascaryo, 2015) Mandailing Natal Regency is one of the regencies in North Sumatra.Mandailing Natal Regency is located at 0°10'-1°50' North latitude and 98°10'-100°10' East longitude with an altitude range of 0-2,145 m above sea level.The area of Mandailing Natal Regency is ±6,620.70km2 or 9.23 percent of the North Sumatra region with the following boundaries : North of South Tapanuli Regency, South of West Sumatra Province, West of the Indonesian Ocean and East of Padang Lawas Regency and West Sumatra (Widiarsih & Hanifah Sandri, 2018).Based on its location and natural conditions, Mandailing Natal Regency is included in the West Coast of North Sumatra.This regency occupies an area of 6,620.70Km2 which is divided into 23 sub-districts and 407 definitive villages/sub-districts.The largest area in Mandailing Natal Regency is Muara Batang Gadis Sub-district, which is 21.67 percent of the total Mandailing Natal Regency area.Meanwhile, Sorik Merapi Valley District has the smallest area, which is only 0.52 percent.Mandailing Natal Regency in increasing development in its region can be done by utilizing the potential of its natural resources.By using the LQ technique and Klasen Typology Analysis which can identify leading sectors in an area (Widiarsih & Hanifah Sandri, 2018).

RESEARCH METHODS
The object of this research is the leading sector in Mandailing Natal Regency in 2017-2021.The data used is secondary data regarding the value of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) by business field at constant prices (ADHK) 2010 for five years, namely 2017-2021 sourced from official documents of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2017.The five-year period used was taken because of changes in constant prices.Before 2010, GRDP calculated by BPS used the base year 2000, since 2010, GRDP calculations were based on the base year 2010.This research uses primary data and secondary data in the analysis process.= GRDP of sector/subsector i in the region observed (district/city) at the end of the analysis year Eint = GDP of sector/subsector i in the reference area (province/national) in the final year of analysis Ent = Total GRDP of the reference area (province/national) end year of analysis

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The results of the analysis calculations that have been carried out in this study are intended to provide direction to the government in order to create development in the leading sectors contained in Mandailing Natal Regency in an effort to create specialization of economic activities in order to build an independent community economy.The analytical tools used in this study refer to the regional economic analysis tools, namely: 1) Location Quotion (LQ) analysis to identify the economic sectors of Mandailing Natal Regency that are included in the base category (leading sector).2) Klassen Typology Analysis to identify sectors categorized as developed sectors, developing sectors, developed but depressed sectors and relatively lagging sectors.3) Shift Share Analysis to identify the components of regional growth so that it is known how the economic structure in Mandailing Natal Regency.

Analisis Location Quotien ( LQ )
LQ analysis is intended to determine the economic sectors in Mandailing Natal Regency that are categorized as base sectors (superior) and non-base sectors.The analysis was carried out using Mandailing Natal Regency GRDP data for 2011-2016 at Constant Prices (ADHK) as the analysis area and North Sumatra Province GRDP data for 2017-2021 ADHK as the reference area.

Table 2. Results of LQ Analysis
Based on the LQ analysis that has been carried out in the calculation of GRDP in Mandailing Natal Regency from 2017 to 2021, there are 2 leading sectors in Mandailing Natal Regency, including Government Administration, Defense and Compulsory Social Security and the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sector.Based on the results of the LQ analysis, it can be seen that the calculation results show that the leading sector in Mandailing Natal Regency is in the Government Administration, Defense and Compulsory Social Security sector with an average LQ value of 2.05 where the value LQ> 1 is a leading sector owned by the region.In addition to Government Administration,there is also a leading sector in Mandailing Natal Regency, namely the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sector with an average LQ value of 1.93, where the value LQ >1.

Analisis Shift Share
This research is used to determine information on the performance of economic sectors in Mandailing Natal Regency.This information also provides an overview of whether there are changes in the economic structure in Mandailing Natal Regency by identifying regional growth components which include economic growth.The variable used in this analysis is the Income variable, which in this case is the GRDP of Mandailing Natal Regency in 2017-2021 and the GRDP of North Sumatra Province in 2017-2021.

Table 1 .
Sarwo Edy Sudrajat, 2019).In the form of a formula, if the data used is data for each sector of Mandailing Natal Regency, it can be written as follows: If LQ > 1, it means that the level of specialization of sector i in Mandailing Natal Regency is greater than the same sector in the economy of North Sumatra Province.If LQ < 1, it means that the level of specialization of sector i in Mandailing Natal Regency is smaller than the same sector in the economy of North Sumatra Province.If LQ = 1, it means that the level of specialization of sector i in Mandailing Natal Regency is the same as the same sector in the economy of North Sumatra Province.If the LQ value> 1, it can be concluded that the sector is a basic sector and has the potential to be developed as a driver of the economy of Mandailing Natal Regency.Conversely, if the LQ value <1, then the sector is not a basic sector and has less potential to be developed as an economic driver of Mandailing Natal Regency(Fransiska Darle, Hadi, & M, 2015).Klassen Typology Matrix Approach Dij = Nij + Mij + Cij Dij = Eij.rn+ Eij (rin-rn) + Eij (rij-rin)

Table 3 .
Calculation Result Of Klassen Typology Analysis Some of these sectors are still in the category of underdeveloped sectors due to several factors including the Mandailing Natal district area which is still difficult to reach, this needs to be a concern of the local government to overcome this problem because it is hoped that the lagging sector can become a sector that affects economic growth in the Mandailing Natal region.If ri > R and yi > Y then it is categorized as Quadrant I or developed and fast-growing sectors.2.If ri > R and yi < Y then it is categorized asQuadrant II or fast growing sector. 3.If ri < R and yi > Y then it is categorized as Quadrant III or developed but depressed sector. 4. If ri < R and yi < Y then it is categorized as Quadrant IV or relatively underdeveloped sector.

Table 4 .
Shift Share Analysis Results