Forecasting and Planning for Material Control in the Medical Device Industry

Abstract

PT. XYZ is a company operating in the electromedical sector that has supported many domestic medical devices in recent years. The demand for electromedical equipment seen from sales data is very volatile and difficult to predict, apart from that 70% of the requests received come from government institutions. The problem is compounded by the absence of a forecasting policy so that production activity planning is not optimal. Product inventory that is not accompanied by careful calculations will result in overstock and stockout which can increase total costs and reduce service levels. In carrying out its business PT. XYZ implements an existing inventory management policy which is carried out by ordering product components in large quantities but there is no clear reorder point. So this research will observe the product components CMS-600 PLUS, ECG-1200G, TENSIONE, ECG-300G, SON-C, SON-B, SON-PRO, USG PROMAX, PROMIST-3, MED-01, ECG- 100G, and ULTRAMIST then proposed the Croston and Syntetos-Boylan Approximation (SBA) forecasting method to estimate possible demand in the future and then continuous review inventory management policies (s, S) and (s, Q) to determine the maximum reorder point value. stock and order quantity. After that, a Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to see and compare existing policies with improvement policies based on total cost and service level variables. Next, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the robustness of the simulation model to changes in uncertainty. The results obtained are recommendations for a continuous review (s, Q) policy with total cost savings of IDR 22,206,322,981 and an increase in service level of 1.36% to 99.98% compared to the existing policy.