Prediction of the Population of Banda Aceh City Using the Laplace Transformation

Nurul Syafira, Eva Murida, Safiatun Hanim, Syarifah Meurah Yuni, Saiful Amri, Hafnani Hafnani, Nurmaulidar Nurmaulidar

Abstract

Population prediction is an estimate of the population in the future based on assumptions from the population growth rate. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the population in Banda Aceh City is increasing every year with an average growth of around 2%. The purpose of this research is to predict the population in Banda Aceh City using the Laplace transformation on exponential model. The exponential model is a simple model to describe population growth patterns. Using Laplace transformation can easily get a difinitive analytic solution. The Laplace transformation of the exponential model is used to calculate the growth rate with data on the population of Banda Aceh City in 2015-2022. Based on the results of the study, the value of the growth rate (r) is obtained from determining the precentage error (MAPE) of each model to determine the predicted value that is closest to the actual value. So, model VII is the most accurate with a value (r) is 0,00412. The result of this study also show that model VII is used to predict the population in Banda Aceh City in 2030 when  is 266.259 people.

 Full Text:

PDF (Bahasa Indonesia)

References

Anggreini, D. 2020. Penerapan Model Populasi Kontinu pada Perhitungan Proyeksi Penduduk Di Indonesia (Studi Kasus: Provinsi Jawa Timur). E-Jurnal Matematika, 9(4), 229.

BPS Kota Banda Aceh. 2023. Banda Aceh Dalam Angka 2023. Banda Aceh: Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Banda Aceh.

Daci, A., & Tola, S. 2018. Application Of Laplace Transform In Finance. International Scientific Journal, Scientific Technical Union Of Mechanical Engineering, “Industry 4.0” Issn (Print) 2535-0986, Issn (Web) 2603-2929, Year II, Issue 4, pp. 130-133.

Kurniawan, A., Holisin, I., & Kristanti, F. 2017. Aplikasi Persamaan Diferensial Biasa Model Eksponensial dan Logistik pada Pertumbuhan Penduduk Kota surabaya. MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology. 2(1). 129-141.

Lim, S. 2016. Pengertian dan Pembahasan tentang transformasi Laplace Serta Pengaplikasiannya: teknik Elektro. Universitas Internasional Batam, 2.

Nuraeni, Zuli. 2015. Aplikasi Persamaan Diferensial dalam Estimasi Jumlah Populasi. Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Mattematika. 5(1). 9-16.

Ofori, T, dkk. 2013. Mathematical Model of Ghana’s Population Growth, International Journal of Modern Management sciences. 2(2). 57-66.

Pratiwi, C. D. 2020. Aplikasi Persamaan Diferensial Model populasi Logistik untuk Mengestimasi Penduduk di kota Balikpapapn. AdMathedu, 10(1), 63-76.

Ramadhan, M. H., & Idami, Z. (2020). Pengendalian laju Pertumbuhan penduduk melalui Program Keluarga Berencana di Kota Banda aceh. Journal of Governance and social Policy, 1(1), 47-57.

Zabadi, A., M., Assaf, R., & Kanan, M. 2017. A Mathematical and Statistical Approach for Predicting the Population Growth. World Wide Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development. 3(7). 50-59.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24815/tjoma.v3i1.38764

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2024 Transcendent Journal of Mathematics and Applications Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.