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Home > Volume 2, Number 2, December 2019 > Darwis
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Asep Rusyana
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Syiah Kuala University
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Parameter Estimation of the Temporal Point Process Model through the Bayesian Approach (Case Study : Malaria Disease Data from Wahidin Hospital in Makassar City)

Darwis Darwis, Sunusi N, Kresna A.J.

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengestimasi parameter melalui pendekatan Bayesian dari model temporal point process. Paramater intensitas bersyarat model tersebut dipandang sebagai suatu renewal process yang selanjutnya digunakan melalui pendekatan Squared Error Loss Function (SELF). Parameter intensitas bersyarat model temporal point process diestimasi menggunakan metode maximum likelihood estimation melalui persamaan likelihood point process.  Selain itu, penelitian ini mengkaji metode estimasi maksimum likelihood dan metode Bayes untuk menganalis fungsi resiko dari hasil penaksir parameter intensitas bersyarat. Pada aplikasi estimasi parameter ini, studi kasus yang digunakan adalah menganalisa data orang yang terkena penyakit malaria yang datanya berasal dari Rumah Sakit Wahidin Kota Makassar. Studi kasus tersebut menghasilkan nilai  yang merupakan nilai resiko penaksir MLE yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan menggunakan Metode Bayes sedangkan nilai  merupakan hasil nilai resiko dari penaksir MLE yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan menggunakan Metode Bayes.

 

This study parameter estimation of conditional intensity with temporal point process model by Bayesian approach. The conditional intensity with temporal point process model derived as a renewal process where inter event time is defined as its random variable. Squared Error Loss Function (SELF) approach is used to estimate the parameter of conditional intensity with temporal point process model which is happened as a renewal process using Bayesian. The other outlines of this paper is to determine the Risk Function as the result of estimation of conditional intensity by Bayesian and by Maximum likelihood Estimation (MLE). The application taking an analysis of Malaria at a place, which is properly conclude that the estimation using MLE method is more risky than the Bayesian it self.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24815/jda.v2i2.15264

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About The Authors

Darwis Darwis
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar
Indonesia

Sunusi N
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar
Indonesia

Kresna A.J.
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar
Indonesia

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Keywords ARIMA Analisis Regresi Aset Bank Bayesian Biplot Canonical correlation analysis Complete lingkage Computer Network Degree of poverty Development areas Forecasting Kesehatan Masyarakat Mean lingkage Multidimensional Poverty indicators Quality of Service Sensitivitas Software-defined Network Spatial Error Model Structural Equation Model, Analisis Jalur, Status Gizi Remaja pembelajaran statistika
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 ISSN 2623-0658 (Print) 

 ISSN 2623-2286 (Online)

 

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